| PRECIOUS METALS · MACRO · ASX | 24 June 2026 · No. 02 |
THE VAULT BRIEF
the flows the headlines miss
Only one region bought gold last month.
Gold ETFs saw about US$2 billion of outflows in May — and Europe was the only region buying. Read the regions, not the headline total, and the move comes into focus. Plus: Evolution Mining's first-ever net-cash quarter.
THE TAPE · USD/oz
Gold/silver ratio 69
FLASHPOINTS — on the radar
Fed & inflation. Rate-path expectations are the dominant driver capping gold. Watch: PCE/CPI prints
Middle East / oil. Lingering Hormuz risk keeps an oil tail-risk on the table. Watch: Hormuz, US–Iran
Russia & PGM. Top platinum/palladium producer — curbs tighten those metals. Watch: sanctions on metals
HIDDEN FLOWS — the ETF split
Last month global gold ETFs saw net outflows of ~US$2bn — yet Europe alone bought (+US$334m), while North America and Asia sold. Zoom out and flows are still +US$17bn year-to-date, on US$604bn of ETF assets.
Why it matters: "gold ETFs saw outflows" sounds bearish, but the detail shows rotation, not capitulation — European safe-haven demand is quietly building. Read the regions, not the total.
THE RESERVE LEDGER — who's stacking
| Poland (NBP) | +31t (Q1) · 582t total |
| Net (all banks) | +244t (Q1) · WGC forecasts ~850t for full-year 2026 |
ASX SPOTLIGHT — Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN)
Diversified gold-and-copper producer. FY25: ~750koz gold (+5%) and ~76kt copper (+12%) at AISC A$1,653/oz. For the first time in its history it moved to net cash after record cash flow. The textbook "margin not price" case.
Educational profile only — not a recommendation to buy or sell.
THE TAKE
Read the regions in ETF flows, not the headline total — and in mining, a record price means nothing until it shows up as margin and cash. Next week: the silver squeeze — a sixth straight year of deficit.
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